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UFC Fight Night 20 Free Pick - Maynard vs Diaz
From Ultimate Fighter Season 5 winner to a betting underdog against one of the many fighters he defeated on the show, it’s been a long, strange ride for Nate Diaz in his UFC career so far.
The brother of former UFC and current Strikeforce star Nick Diaz has remained on the fringe of being a serious lightweight contender, but just when it seems like he’s ready to break through, he drops a tough fight and relegates himself to the middle of the pack again.
But Diaz is a confident (actually, cocky is a much better word) fighter who believes himself to be an elite talent and sometimes performs up to that standard because of his great jiu-jitsu skills.
Opposing him at UFC Fight Night 20 in Fairfax, Virginia will be fellow TUF alum Gray Maynard, who has surprisingly vaulted near the top of the title contenders line in the lightweight division despite not faring as well on the show.
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Maynard goes into his fight with Diaz as the favorite with -300 odds to +220 for the underdog.
Not only has Maynard won every fight except for one no contest since loss to Diaz on the show, he also has diversified his game in ways not many people expected he would.
Maynard has gone from simply a great wrestler; a wrecking ball of a lightweight, to a highly-skilled boxer and a smart fighter who knows how to get it done against just about any type of opponent.
He has beaten jiu-jitsu fighters in the same ballpark as Diaz in terms of skills and now he will get a chance to avenge his last loss, even though it technically doesn’t count as a professional loss.
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For Maynard to win, the main thing he has to do is stay out of submissions because Diaz is crafty on the ground and has longer limbs. Barring a submission victory for Diaz, the only other way Maynard is likely to lose this fight is to get out-boxed and to drop a decision, because Diaz has almost no power in his hands.
Maynard should be able to at least hold his own on the feet, however, and he also should be fine in terms of avoiding submissions because he trains with Randy Couture’s camp and Couture and company are masters at using wrestling skills and physical strength advantages to power out of submissions.
With Maynard the better fighter and the more physical guy in all aspects, it’s hard to see him losing this fight, regardless of what transpired on Season Five of TUF.
The pick: Gray Maynard (-300) by TKO in the second round.